Tactics: over rated or not, that is the question?

So, last time I went to GW we were playing a game and when I put down I was pretty shore I was going to lose, not that I was put down because I usually lose fantasy because of my lack of experience. That to me was a good game because I learned a bit more.

Now part of the reason he won and I lost was 'tactics' but really, a lot of the time he didn't need his 'tactics' because he knew how my stuff would work etc. So generally in my experience tactics only matter when your armies power level + your skill level balances out to be the same compared to your opponents.

So, I know I'm being blunt but I put it to you, in some cases (not all), do you think that the game is less about tactics and more about whether your luck is average, good or bad and how much of an effect you can have on that (i.e. how many 2+ armor save guys with thunder hammers are next to the trygon!).

Thanks for reading,

Jacob.